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Russia destroys its retired satellite Cosmos 1408 in a missile strike
On November 15, the Russian ministry of defense tested the anti-satellite (ASAT) A-235 Nudol missile, which has actually hit its target, Kosmos 1408, a former Soviet military surveillance satellite, decommissioned late 80s. Little was known about the “Nudol” capacity until then; although a dozen of tests were already performed, this ASAT system had never destroyed a satellite in the past. Thus, Russia entered the club of the nations that have destroyed a satellite in orbit with the help of a missile direct ascent from the Earth surface (following the USA, China and India).
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This technological demonstration and display of space warfare power is not for the better of the space exploration and innovation.
Not only it is a step further to weaponization of outer space[1] (even if the missile was fired from the ground, Plesetsk Cosmodrome in the present case), but it could also jeopardize the use of the orbits crossing the cloud of debris. This is already threatening the crew of the International Space Station, conservatively asked to take shelter in their respective spacecraft (Soyuz MS and Crew Dragon) at each orbit period of 90 min, in case an impact would damage the ISS up to requiring evacuation. The Chinese Tiangong space station and the taikonauts may also be at risk. The 2 space stations in-service are orbiting at altitudes around 420 and 395 km respectively, whereas Kosmos 1408 last know orbit was around 500 km, with debris localized between 200 and 1,100 km as of 17 November. Moreover, Kosmos 1408 was a fairly large hull of 1,750 kg[2], twice bigger than the previous satellites impacted by missiles (see below). In addition, these high energy fragments have separated from the main body with delta V in any direction, together with dynamic parameters such as apogee/perigee, eccentricity, inclination spreading them on multiple orbits. They can potentially cross a wide range of orbits used for OE, but also the ones of mega-constellation such as Space X Starlink (circular at 550 km), Amazon Kuiper (400 km, not to be launched before Q3 2024 however) – a possible encounter with OneWeb satellites at 1,200 km seems however more unlikely, at least when on-station position is reached. The question may arise why Russia has not chosen a smaller target among the vast Soviet era retired satellite, in a less populated orbital region.
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It was also unexpected that Russia would attempt such a dangerous action for human presence in space, with 2 Russians in the ISS out of 7. Unfortunately the “cold war logic” actually driving the international relations and space competition specifically seems to be stronger than a responsible use of space. Space warfare capacity has always been a very important component of Soviet, then Russian military showcase and deterrence. It would be much more gratifying to the nation to see it as the first to have ever launched a satellite in orbit in 1957, and the first human in 1961. Nonetheless, since the 60s the soviet space industry has worked on numerous counterspace systems programs. In particular the Istrebitel Sputnikov (IS), “spacecraft fighters” designed to intercept other satellites and destroying them (with embarked guns or directed-energy-weapons) after achieving a co-orbital position. These shots generated some debris, the first known being as early as February 1971, following the interception of Cosmos 394 target by Cosmos 397-IS, on an orbit inclined at 65.8 degrees and an altitude around 535 km. This co-orbital anti-satellite capability is also deemed to be operational again. Beside, the airborne Burevestnik ASAT rocket system might in service with modified MiG-31 fighters. Russia also makes extensive use of Electronic Warfare capacities, with the FSB Luch satellites inter alia.
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[1] The « Outer Space Treaty » , which Russia has ratified, forbids the use of space-based military devices, but DA-ASAT (Direct Ascent anti-satellite system) using conventional warhead.
[2] It was also its launch mass as on September 1982 : expected for a short service duration of less than 1 year, the satellite did not have any propulsion system and thus no propellant to be consumed and reduce the on-orbit mass. The initial mean altitude of 660 km has decayed to around 500 at the time of the missile strike
History of satellites hit by anti-satellite missiles
- September 1985: after multiple Successful intercept of a simulated satellite target or within a “kill radius” of an explosive warhead since 1959, the USA were the first to destroy a satellite with an ASM 135 missile fired from a F-15 Eagle jet fighter . The target was the Solwind satellite at 555 km, and the last of the resulting 285 pieces debris was believed to have been eliminated during its atmosphere reentry not earlier than in 2008 (some 22 years after the shot). In February 2008, the satellite NROL 21 (aka USA 193) was destroyed at a lower altitude of 247 km (SM-3 missile fired from the USS Lake Erie cruiser).
- January 2007: China destroyed its FengYun 1C decommissioned weather satellite orbiting at 865 km, using the SC-19 system (most likely derived from the DF-21 ballistic missile). It has generated three thousand pieces of orbital debris larger than 10 cm, which may take up to 40 years before reentering the atmosphere. Since then, the RPC may have conducted up to 7 direct ascent ASAT tests, wrt launch trajectories not reflecting the ones of a sounding rocket or a rocket used for a satellite injection in-orbit.
- March 2019: India demonstrated its own anti-satellite capability when it destroyed its Microsat-R satellite. This event even more surprised the observers that it was conducted using an India’s indigenously developed missile system, the PDV MK-II. Microsat-R was similar in mass (~740 kg) to the FY-1C Chinese satellite destroyed 12 years before by the RPC, however its sun-synchronous orbit was much lower at around 300 km. Consequently, the resulting debris are below most of operational orbits and will have a shorter lifespan. Indian officials stated that most of the debris would reenter in a few days, 45 days at most.
It is to be noted that despite its technological capacity, Europe does not seem to develop any DA-ASAT capability, also France plans to have directed energy laser weapons ready by 2025. This attitude seems at least consistent with the general spacefaring nations public claims that they work to prevent conflict in outer-space.
References:
swf_global_counterspace_capabilities_2021.pdf (swfound.org)
www.planet4589.org/space/log/satcat.txt « deb Kosmos-394 »
New images and analyses reveal extent of Cosmos 1408 debris cloud | Ars Technica
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